Q: Do trading systems really work?
A: Yes. Good systems that have not been over-optimized market-by-market do work. You must be careful to distinguish systems that work in hindsight testing from those that work in real-time trading. People assume that anything that worked over a long historical period will almost certainly continue to work in the future. That depends on the system and the test. There is no absolute relationship between historical performance and real-time future performance.
A: Yes. Good systems that have not been over-optimized market-by-market do work. You must be careful to distinguish systems that work in hindsight testing from those that work in real-time trading. People assume that anything that worked over a long historical period will almost certainly continue to work in the future. That depends on the system and the test. There is no absolute relationship between historical performance and real-time future performance.
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